by The mathematical certainty of athletic department decision-making
The Five-Year Coaching Cycle: Why Every Hire Fails Exactly the Same Way
There’s a pattern. Every coach hired. Every university. Five years. Like clockwork.
Year One: The Honeymoon
“He’s the future of this program! Look at his credentials! He worked with someone important!” The local media loves him. Boosters are excited. Alumni are hopeful. Everyone’s pretending they didn’t see the warning signs that were obvious to anyone paying attention.
Year Two: The Concerning Trend
Record drops. Fans start asking questions. The athletic director gives a press conference: “We’re in a transition year. These things take time. Let’s trust the process.”
Translation: “We hired someone unqualified and now we’re hoping he’ll figure it out before we have to admit the mistake.”
Year Three: The Blame-Shifting Begins
Losses mount. The coach starts blaming recruiting. The athletic director blames the coach. The media blames both. The one person actually responsiblethe athletic director who hired the coach in the first placeblames “circumstances beyond his control.”
Jerry Seinfeld once observed: “Have you ever noticed that people who complain about problems are usually the people who created those problems?” Athletic directors have elevated this to an art form.
Year Four: The Desperation Era
Last-ditch efforts to save the coach’s job. New assistant coaches hired. Recruiting promises are made. Emergency meetings are held. Everyone’s pretending the ship isn’t sinking.
The coach’s buyout is now $12 million. Firing him will devastate the budget. Not firing him will devastate the team. Universities choose the path that lets them claim they “tried everything.”
Year Five: The Inevitable Ending
The coach is fired or quietly resigns. The athletic director announces: “We’re conducting a national search for the next head coach.”
And the cycle begins again with a new guy with the same credentials that didn’t work last time.
Ron White once said: “I’ve made mistakes. But I’ve never been so incompetent that I got paid $12 million to fail.” Universities have built an entire system around exactly that.
The five-year cycle is mathematical certainty. Not because coaching is impossible. But because universities systematically hire people based on vibes and call it strategy.
Auf Wiedersehen, amigos.
